Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-20 4.891156 5.749560 6.698488 7.823075 9.117152 10.557219 12.278701
2025-07-27 3.702203 4.892865 6.350853 8.256765 10.670484 13.612409 17.455096
2025-08-03 2.814762 4.115079 5.852342 8.317765 11.696273 16.128791 22.342237
2025-08-10 2.126960 3.402515 5.243074 8.048718 12.162465 17.906366 26.447510
2025-08-17 1.618835 2.812193 4.658702 7.659567 12.330594 19.217075 29.992972
2025-08-24 1.307137 2.446122 4.322167 7.548750 12.840645 21.018347 34.386749
2025-08-31 1.077741 2.161561 4.052874 7.478672 13.369506 22.865037 39.003530
2025-09-07 0.953958 2.035117 4.020630 7.784023 14.526633 25.797145 45.600191
2025-09-14 0.818030 1.854994 3.857285 7.823935 15.218138 28.015586 51.225263
2025-09-21 0.704677 1.694740 3.700428 7.843920 15.861430 30.196436 56.971156
2025-09-28 0.610099 1.553188 3.553873 7.855580 16.478379 32.374277 62.892604
2025-10-05 0.589497 1.572095 3.736066 8.541157 18.449092 37.163976 73.886011
2025-10-12 0.533652 1.500081 3.720065 8.830447 19.704323 40.804021 83.211010
2025-10-19 0.487416 1.442313 3.727308 9.173118 21.114456 44.886449 93.762729
2025-10-26 0.426198 1.331975 3.595114 9.188975 21.845735 47.720097 102.182313
2025-11-02 0.356221 1.180467 3.336875 8.876304 21.829651 49.055100 107.776534
2025-11-09 0.292225 1.028739 3.048607 8.444523 21.488860 49.679314 111.981856
2025-11-16 0.251801 0.936694 2.896905 8.321154 21.829278 51.752749 119.325881
2025-11-23 0.219042 0.859887 2.771515 8.243762 22.264267 54.062427 127.351138
2025-11-30 0.204459 0.839753 2.801414 8.577086 23.726076 58.754206 140.848565
2025-12-07 0.182431 0.787601 2.728380 8.620574 24.473359 61.902283 151.216634
2025-12-14 0.162515 0.737440 2.651820 8.642363 25.166949 64.985753 161.682095
2025-12-21 0.144810 0.690473 2.576182 8.655086 25.837504 68.071643 172.391631